"Don’t Mid-Curve It."
Midwit Meme Explained: Why the Middle Is the Worst Place
Melbourne, April 2024
TL;DR: The bell curve meme isn’t just a joke. It’s a philosophical diagram. And if you’re reading this, you’re probably in the middle.
I built this into an interactive quiz. Find out where you fall on the bell curve: midwit.huliwood.com
I used to think knowledge was power. More information, better decisions. Ignorant people were missing out.
I was wrong. There’s a specific kind of “smart” that makes you miserable, ineffective, and broke.
The best explanation for this comes from a meme.
Introducing: The Bell Curve
The bell curve meme (also called the midwit meme) is a format that shows three levels of understanding: the beginner and the expert agree on a simple answer, while the person in the middle overcomplicates it.
The punchline: overthinking is its own trap.
Memes are “data compression.” They allow us to transmit complex cultural ideas instantly. And the bell curve meme is a masterclass.
It shows three types of people:
The “Brainlet” (Left): Holds a simple, straightforward opinion.
The “Midwit” (Middle): Holds an overly complicated, nuanced, “sophisticated” opinion.
The “Jedi” (Right): Holds the same simple, straightforward opinion as the “Brainlet”.
The “dumb” guy and the “genius” agree. The guy in the middle is the only one who is wrong.
The Midwit Trap
The “Midwit Trap” is the cognitive dead zone where you’re smart enough to see complexity but not experienced enough to see through it.
It’s a dangerous place to be. This person is smart enough to understand nuance, but not smart enough to filter it. They are obsessed with appearing intelligent. They love jargon, credentials, and “best practices.”
Example – investing:
The Brainlet: “I buy Bitcoin because number go up.”
The Midwit: “Well, you have to consider the macroeconomic headwinds, the correlation with the Nasdaq, the regulatory environment, and the Sharpe ratio...”
The Jedi: “I buy Bitcoin because number go up.”
The Brainlet is right for the wrong reasons. The Jedi is right for the right reasons. The Midwit is broke.
Spot the Midwit
Let’s look at how this plays out in real life.
Housing:
Left: “I need a roof over my head.”
Middle: “I need a 4-bedroom colonial with a heated garage for the rowing machine I don’t use and a guest room for people I don’t like.”
Right: “I need a roof over my head.”
Corporate work:
Left: “Let’s build the product.”
Middle: “Let’s have a 5-hour brainstorming workshop to define the ‘who, what, where, and why’ of our synergistic go-to-market strategy.”
Right: “Let’s build the product.”
The best tool is no tool. The best meeting is no meeting. But the Midwit is terrified of simplicity because simplicity looks “dumb.”
The Comfort of the Herd
The middle of the curve is cozy – the protection of knowing you’re following the rules.
But here is the analogy: would you rather spend your life as an NPC? The Midwit is the NPC of intellectual life. Pre-programmed dialogue. Fixed patrol route. He’ll tell you exactly where to find the sword, and it’ll be the wrong one. Call it the Copper Sword Career – reliable, accessible, and completely inadequate for the boss fight.
If most people say something is “stupid” or “too simple,” pay attention. You might be onto something extraordinary. A prerequisite for enlightenment is the willingness to look stupid.
Where the Alpha Is
The middle is where everything is “priced in.” It is where the common knowledge lives. It is where you get average returns, average stress, and average results.
The tails of the distribution are where the alpha is. Also the bankruptcy. The bell curve’s edges are where genius and catastrophe hold hands and jump together. The difference is a thin membrane called “conviction” – and most people don’t have enough of it to fill a thimble.
Truly great ideas – the airplane, the internet, the iPhone – sounded stupid to the Midwits.
“Why do we need a flying machine? Trains are fine.”
“Why do we need a computer in our pocket? We have calculators.”
By the time an idea sounds good to everyone, it’s probably too late.
Ask yourself: am I over-complicating this just to feel smart?
Simplicity is risky. It feels dangerous to say “just do it” when everyone else is writing a 40-page strategy deck. But being on the edge is freeing.
The herd will always be there if you want to go back. The question is – will you?
This is also why more information ≠ more informed – a topic I explored here: ⬇️
And here’s the investing example of the Brainlet/Mindwit/Jedi mental model: ⬇️
Memes apart, you're hinting at a slippery but pervasive subject rather difficult to put your finger on. One that surely will accompany you throughout all your life, and surprisingly you may find yourself wading the ins and outs of the concept several times, curiously not getting any clearer perspective each time ;-)
Yet, keeping at it is not an option but the way our brains are wired...